Presidential election odds on popular Polygon-based predictions market Polymarket have shifted significantly over the past weekend, with the odds of former U.S. President Donad Trump beating current Vice President Kamala Harris narrowing from around 66.9% to 57%.
Similarly, Harris’ odds of winning the election, according to Polymarket traders, jumped from 33.1% to 43% at the time of writing. Presidential election odds on the prediction market contrast with those from the polls, which point to a tight race that will depend on key battleground states.
According to economist Justin Wolfers, Trump’s odds dropped sharply as influence from key whales is reportedly waning at a time in which polling also shows the race is tightening.
Data shows that top Trumo position holders on Polymarket are currently seeing unrealized losses of around $4 million, with the top holder zxgngl currently holding a massive $13.2 million position that’s facing a potential unrealized loss of $900,000.
The second-largest Trump position holder, Fredi9999, currently has a $12.28 million position, and is sitting on unrealized gains of $770,000. Other top whales, GCottrell93 and Theo4, hold $1.1 million and $250,000 of unrealized losses.
Top holders of Kamala Harris position, leier, Ly67890, and L98189899 hold $4.5 million, $2.2 million, and $2.1 million positions respectively. The largest holder is sitting on unrealized losses of $450,000, while the second- and third-largest holders are sitting on unrealized gains of $273,000 and $157,000, respectively.
It’s worth noting that market depth on Polymarket has shown a significant lack of liquidity in the past, meaning that large positions could heavily influence the odds of any candidate. That liquidity, however, has seemingly deepened over the last few weeks.
Notably, Trump’s perceived odds of winning the election also plunged from 64% to 52% on the federally-regulated prediction market Kalshi.
Featured image via Unsplash.
