The highly-anticipated 2024 US Presidential election has seen the trading volume of bets on who is going to win it in leading prediction market Polymarket surpass the $3 billion mark, with bets on Republican candidate Donald Trump surpassing $1.29 billion.
According to data from Polymarket, bets on Vice President Kamala Harris now stand above the $800 million mark, with the market seeing the odds of Trump winning the election stand at 61.5%, compared to 38.5% for Harris.
Notably, over the weekend Trump’s perceived winning odds plunged from 66.9% to 57% before they started recovering. According to economist Justin Wolfers, Trump’s odds dropped sharply as influence from key whales is reportedly waning at a time in which polling also shows the race is tightening.
Data shows that top Trump position holders on Polymarket are currently seeing unrealized losses of around $4 million, with the top holder zxgngl currently holding a massive $17.4 million position that was facing a potential unrealized loss of $900,000, and is now sitting on $96,000 of unrealized gains.
The second-largest Trump position holder, Fredi9999, currently has a $13 million position, and is sitting on unrealized gains of $1.5 million. Other top whales, GCottrell93 and Theo4, hold $660,000 of unrealized losses and nearly $200,000 of unrealized gains, respectively.
Top holders of Kamala Harris position, leier, Ly67890, and L98189899 hold $4.1 million, $2 million, and $21.9 million positions respectively. The largest holder is sitting on unrealized losses of $840,000, while the second-largest holder is sitting on realized gains of around $80,000. The third-largest holder is sitting on a $27,000 unrealized loss.
It’s worth noting that market depth on Polymarket has shown a significant lack of liquidity in the past, meaning that large positions could heavily influence the odds of any candidate. That liquidity, however, has seemingly deepened over the last few weeks.
Featured image via Unsplash.
