Steve Eisman, renowned for his profitable bets against the housing market before the 2008 crisis and his tenure as an investor for Neuberger Berman, recently expressed skepticism about the idea of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates.
In an interview with CNBC, Eisman highlighted the strength of the US economy, emphasizing the robust consumer spending that underpins it. He pointed out that with consumer spending driving 70% of the US economy and with consumers still possessing savings and continuing to spend, there is little reason for the alarm that some are raising as the consumer “seems to be pretty strong” and still has savings.
Eisman, famous for his role in “The Big Short” bet against the sub-prime mortgage market ahead of the 2008 crisis, argued that there’s no justification for concerns about an economic collapse or recession in the absence of negative economic indicators. Per his words, analysts “should just wait” as when “there’s a negative data point” it can be discussed, but until then “the economy is just fine.”
The investor mentioned he would grow concerned only if there were signs of consumers struggling with debt, akin to the precursors of the 2008 financial crisis. He monitors consumer credit quality as a key indicator of economic health, believing that as long as the consumer remains strong, broader economic worries are unwarranted.
Eisman advised against the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at this time, arguing that the current economic conditions—marked by decreasing inflation and sustained strength—do not warrant such action.
He cautioned that premature rate cuts could potentially trigger inflation again and praised the Fed’s management of the economy, suggesting a “soft landing” has been achieved and advocated for a wait-and-see approach to future economic data before making any policy changes.
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