Crypto derivatives exchange FTX has launched a new futures contract for traders to speculate on President Donald Trump’s reelection in 2020.
According to the official update made Feb. 5, FTX clients will now be able trade ‘TRUMP-2020’ (TRUMP) futures contracts, which the exchange says will expire to $1 if President Trump wins the 2020 U.S. election, or $0 otherwise. Risk calculations for the contract are based on a “risk price” of $5 per contract.
FTX expects that the price of TRUMP contracts will closely mirror the probability of his reelection.
The update reads,
Theoretically–ignoring interest rates, fees, inefficiency, spread, etc.–the price of once [sic] contract of TRUMP should be equal to the probability that Trump wins reelection. So if you think there's a 52% chance of Trump winning, then TRUMP should trade at $0.52; buying below there would be good, as would selling above $0.52.
Unfortunately for Americans participating in the election’s voting, trading on FTX and with the FTX Token (FTT) is prohibited for U.S. citizens.
Trading on FTX is not available in the United States or other prohibited jurisdictions. If you are located in, incorporated or otherwise established in, or a resident of the United States of America, you are not permitted to trade on FTX.
The U.S. election is set to take place on Nov. 3, with the winning candidate required to obtain at least 270 of the 538 total electoral votes.
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