On November 14, Matthew Sigel, the head of digital asset research at global asset manager VanEck, joined CNBC’s “Squawk Box” to share his thoughts on the ongoing rally in the crypto market.
During the interview, Sigel expressed confidence that Bitcoin’s recent surge is far from over. He argued that the current rally, which followed the election, has brought Bitcoin into “blue sky territory” where there is no significant technical resistance. He claims that Bitcoin is likely to reach new all-time highs repeatedly over the next two quarters. He drew parallels to 2020, noting that after the previous election, Bitcoin doubled in value, though there were multiple corrections along the way. Sigel emphasized that despite potential short-term volatility, the rally is just getting started.
He pointed out that several indicators monitored by VanEck continue to signal a positive outlook for Bitcoin. Sigel believes that these factors, combined with increased government support, will sustain the rally. He noted that members of the new administration, including the Vice President and key Cabinet members, have shown pro-Bitcoin leanings, which he sees as a significant shift towards a more supportive regulatory environment.
Sigel also mentioned a surge in interest from institutional investors. He said he had received numerous inquiries from investment advisors who are currently underexposed to Bitcoin. According to Sigel, advisors who previously held no crypto assets are now considering a 1% allocation, while those with a small allocation are looking to increase it to 3%. He believes this growing demand from institutional players will drive significant capital inflows into the market.
VanEck’s price target for Bitcoin in this cycle is set at $180,000. Sigel explained that this would represent a significant return from the recent market bottom but would still be the smallest cycle increase in Bitcoin’s history. He sees this as achievable within the next year.
When discussing the broader market sentiment, Sigel remarked that, despite Bitcoin’s current rally, there are no signs of the mania seen in past bull runs. He observed that Google’s search interest for Bitcoin remains well below the levels reached four years ago, and the ranking of popular crypto apps like Coinbase in Apple and Android stores is also lower. These indicators suggest that the market is not yet overheated, implying further upside potential.
Sigel also examined derivative markets, noting that while funding costs for Bitcoin futures have increased, they are not yet at extreme levels. He explained that during periods of price discovery, these costs tend to remain elevated for extended periods, supporting the notion that the rally is still in its early stages.
Sigel touched upon the potential impact of regulatory changes under the incoming Trump administration. He discussed the possibility of the current SEC Chair stepping down, which he believes could be a turning point for the crypto industry. Sigel believes that ending of the practice of “regulation by enforcement” would foster a more dynamic and innovative environment for digital assets.
He mentioned that several crypto projects are already planning to expand their operations in the United States, including opening offices and holding conferences in locations like New York. This shift, Sigel argued, would be beneficial for U.S. job creation and GDP growth. He also noted that the establishment of a Bitcoin reserve could legitimize Bitcoin as a reserve asset, facilitating its use as a global settlement currency.
In a forward-looking statement, Sigel highlighted the synergy between Bitcoin and artificial intelligence (AI). He suggested that the integration of AI with Bitcoin mining could drive significant efficiencies. He implied that future advancements in AI could benefit from the decentralized, energy-efficient infrastructure provided by Bitcoin’s network.
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