On August 1, popular crypto analyst Willy Woo shared his analysis on the potential future value of Bitcoin via a thread on the social media platform X (formerly known as Twitter). Woo began by addressing the unpredictability of Bitcoin’s ultimate price, noting that while no one can precisely predict this value, some mathematical estimations can provide an upper boundary.
Woo explained that the total value of all wealth assets is approximately $500 trillion. If Bitcoin were to capture all this wealth—an unlikely scenario, as he emphasized—it would result in a price of $24 million per coin, based on today’s value before considering future inflation adjustments. He believes this hypothetical maximum highlights Bitcoin’s potential within the global financial ecosystem.
Woo then shifted the discussion to a more realistic scenario, questioning what a sensible allocation of wealth to Bitcoin might look like. He pointed out that wealth management tends to be conservative and follows established wisdom. Notably, he mentioned that Fidelity, a major financial services corporation, recommends a 1-3% allocation to Bitcoin, even at this early stage of the asset class. As for BlackRock, another financial giant, he said that it had suggested allocations as high as 85%.
Using a 3% allocation as a reasonable benchmark—a figure that Woo recalled from as early as 2014—he calculated a lower bound for Bitcoin’s valuation at $700,000 per coin. He thinks this estimate provides a grounded perspective on Bitcoin’s potential value within current market dynamics.
Woo further elaborated on his price target range for Bitcoin, setting a lower bound at $700,000 and an upper bound at $24 million, based on today’s inflation-adjusted numbers. This range reflects the spectrum of possibilities depending on Bitcoin’s adoption and integration into global wealth.
Addressing the timeline for Bitcoin’s value appreciation, Woo referred to the adoption S-curve, a model describing how new technologies are adopted by the population. He noted that 16% adoption marks the early majority phase, while 50% represents the late majority. Woo suggested that wealth management practices would fall somewhere within this range, influencing Bitcoin’s price trajectory as adoption increases.
He also highlighted a significant inflection point: when Bitcoin’s market capitalization surpasses that of all fiat currencies combined. Beyond this point, he thinks the focus will shift from Bitcoin’s ultimate price to finding investments that outperform Bitcoin. He stated that this shift reflects a departure from a fiat-centric mindset toward one that prioritizes assets capable of maintaining or increasing value relative to Bitcoin.
Woo referenced Michael Saylor, the former CEO and the current Executive Chairman of MicroStrategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR), as a pioneer in recognizing Bitcoin’s potential. Saylor was the first CEO of a public company to adopt a strategy of storing company profits in Bitcoin. Woo anticipates that many more companies will follow Saylor’s lead, further integrating Bitcoin into the financial landscape.
In the replies to Woo’s thread, a discussion emerged regarding the potential conflicts Bitcoin might face. A user named Gordon Freeman argued that Bitcoin lacks a military with unlimited funding to defend it, suggesting that a conflict between USD and Bitcoin would inevitably lead to war. Woo countered this by asserting that Bitcoin is defended by economic incentives rather than military force. He emphasized that war is not a fundamental necessity but an outcome driven by economic incentives. Woo further noted that since Bitcoin has no nationality, the premise of a national conflict over Bitcoin is flawed.
Freeman responded, agreeing that wars are often driven by economic incentives, highlighting the significant incentive for the U.S. to defend the USD’s dominance. Woo replied, acknowledging that the U.S. government has been waging a non-military war on Bitcoin for the past decade through regulatory measures and shutting down on-ramps to Bitcoin. He concluded that this financial war has not succeeded in halting Bitcoin’s progress.
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