in a video released on June 22, prominent crypto analyst and Trader Eric Crown talked about what to expect from Bitcoin in July July 2024.
Crown begins his analysis by noting that with just over a week left until July starts, it’s an appropriate time to review historical returns for July and compare them with the past few months. Crown highlights that historically, July has been a positive month for Bitcoin, with nine out of the last fourteen Julys closing positively, yielding a probability of just over 64% for a positive close.
Crown details that the average return for positive closing months in July is just over 19%, while the average loss for negative closing months is just under 9%. He suggests that if Bitcoin continues to consolidate, a tightening range between 60,000 and 70,000 dollars is likely. Crown emphasizes that as long as Bitcoin stays above the May lows, the probability favors an upside, although it is not a certainty given the performance in June.
Crown compares the current month’s returns with June, noting that June has been uneventful with very tight price movement, less than 4% from open to the current price. Crown interprets this as an indication of Bitcoin slowing down for the summer, leading to an extended consolidation period. He mentions that there is heightened sentiment in the market, with people becoming very bullish on any $1,000 move to the upside and very bearish on any $1,000 move to the downside.
Crown points out that altcoins are showing significant volatility, reacting dramatically to minor Bitcoin price movements. He attributes some of the negative sentiment to this altcoin behavior. Crown notes that compared to last year, Bitcoin is trading at more than twice its value, which he views positively.
Moving forward, Crown forecasts that Bitcoin will likely close June around 65,000 dollars, maintaining the consolidation range. He highlights that Saturdays have historically been the lowest volatility days for Bitcoin, with a slightly higher probability of a positive close. However, he points out that the returns on Saturdays are minimal, both on the positive and negative sides.
Crown mentions that the CME’s weekly closure showed Bitcoin closing slightly above the median, keeping bullish hopes alive in the short term. He predicts that where Bitcoin opens on Monday will be significant for price action, potentially setting up a short-term scalp opportunity if Bitcoin opens above 60,000 dollars. However, Crown cautions that a failure to hold above this level could indicate potential downside risk.
Crown refers to a daily setup for Bitcoin using his Quant Automation service, noting that the strike rate for this setup is about 52%, similar to a coin flip. The setup’s value lies in the average winning trade being over 22% and the average losing trade being just over 8%. Crown observes that Bitcoin has been consolidating within a 10,000-dollar range and is currently resting on the 50% retracement level at around 63,900 dollars.
Crown asserts that if Bitcoin fails to hold this level, it could head down to the 61,000 to 62,000-dollar range, which he views as a critical area for maintaining bullish hopes. He emphasizes that even if a higher low is established, it will likely take time, potentially extending through the end of July and into August, setting up for a possible Q4 breakout.
Crown concludes by noting that the market remains in a consolidation phase, with significant movements unlikely in the immediate term.
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