On the social media platform X, the popular pseudonymous crypto analyst Kaleo recently shared his thoughts on the future of Dogecoin (DOGE). His analysis delves into the historical performance of DOGE, its recent trends, and potential future movements.
Kaleo starts by acknowledging the sentiment among many crypto enthusiasts that Dogecoin is often seen as boring. He points out that for the majority of its existence—approximately 9.5 years—DOGE has trended sideways or downwards. However, he highlights two significant periods where Dogecoin experienced massive surges: one with a 6000% increase and another exceeding 30,000%. These explosive movements occurred within a relatively short timeframe compared to its long periods of stagnation.
According to Kaleo, the duration Dogecoin has spent moving sideways since its last all-time high (ATH) is similar to the previous two extended sideways ranges before breaking out. He notes that in each of those past instances, it took about 8 to 9 months after Bitcoin’s halving before Dogecoin began its substantial upward movement. Given that we are only two months past the most recent Bitcoin halving, he suggests that it aligns with historical trends for Dogecoin to potentially break out around December to February.
Kaleo anticipates that before any significant breakout, Dogecoin might see a pullback to the 8-10 cents range, retracing the move up observed in February. He draws parallels to a similar trend break and drawdown of about 30% that happened in August 2020, which was several months before Dogecoin’s mainstream surge. This historical pattern leads him to expect a possible short-term correction before the next major rally.
Kaleo admits that he may have been overeager in expecting Dogecoin to catch up with other meme coins without fully considering previous cycles. Despite this, he maintains a bullish long-term outlook. He believes we are currently in a “meme coin supercycle” and expects Dogecoin to eventually reach $1 to $2. However, he emphasizes that historical trends suggest there is still some time before this happens, giving investors a window to prepare.
In a video update released earlier today, crypto analyst Kriss Pax provided an in-depth analysis of Dogecoin’s price action, looking at past trends and forecasting future movements.
Pax begins by acknowledging that June was a challenging month for Dogecoin, Bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies. He says several factors contributed to the market downturn, including Bitcoin ETF selling, Bitcoin miner reserves being sold to meet utility bills, and global events like Bitcoin sales by Germany and the United States. He also thinks that concerns about the release of Mt. Gox Bitcoin added to market fears.
As of the video’s recording, Pax notes that Dogecoin was trading around 12.25 cents. According to Pax, despite some significant dips, including a drop to 12.05 cents, the market showed resilience with a subsequent recovery. Pax mentions that a major factor in this recovery was a substantial Bitcoin purchase on Binance, which he claims had a positive ripple effect across the crypto market.
Pax highlights several key technical patterns and indicators. He points out that since mid-June, Dogecoin has mostly moved sideways, with minor fluctuations. A local bottom for Dogecoin was identified at 11.44 cents during a live stream. He adds that Bitcoin closed below the weekly volume point of control for three consecutive weeks in June, but there is potential for a bullish close in the following week.
Since mid-June, Pax notes that Dogecoin has outperformed Bitcoin by 10%. This trend, he believes, suggests strength in Dogecoin relative to Bitcoin, a positive sign for DOGE investors.
Furthermore, according to Pax, historically, Bitcoin has seen positive returns in July after a red June, with three out of the last four years following this pattern. Pax suggests that Bitcoin’s historical 8% average increase in July could be a bullish indicator for the broader crypto market, including Dogecoin.
Pax highlights Dogecoin’s current position around its 200-week moving average, indicating potential stability. He also points out a new descending wedge pattern forming, extending through the summer, with a potential breakout towards the end of August.
For July, Pax predicts that Dogecoin will continue its sideways action with some volatility. He anticipates that Dogecoin could test its support level at 11.85 cents and possibly eclipse 13 cents by the end of July. His conservative estimate for Dogecoin’s price by the end of July is around 13 cents, reflecting a potential 6% gain.
Kriss Pax advises investors to remain patient and avoid leveraging their positions excessively. He emphasizes the importance of holding spot positions and not capitulating during market downturns. He expects this cautious approach to help investors weather the volatile summer months and position themselves for potential gains in the fall.
Looking beyond July, Pax sees a brighter horizon for Dogecoin. He says the large descending wedge pattern suggests a significant breakout later in the year, aligning with broader market forecasts. He remains optimistic about Dogecoin’s long-term potential despite the current market challenges.
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