Markus Thielen is a prominent figure in the digital asset investment community, known for his analytical and strategic expertise. He is currently the CEO of 10x Research, a firm that provides detailed research and insights into digital assets aimed primarily at institutional investors. Additionally, Thielen serves as the Head of Research and Strategy at Matrixport, a leading firm in the digital asset investment space.
Earlier today, Thielen shared his insights on LinkedIn regarding the implications of this week’s inflation data for Bitcoin. Thielen began by highlighting traders’ expectations for a significant move in Bitcoin’s price by the end of the week. According to Thielen, this anticipated volatility is influenced by the upcoming release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) data tonight and the more crucial Consumer Price Index (CPI) data tomorrow. These metrics are key indicators of inflation, with the PPI measuring the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output and the CPI tracking the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services.
Thielen pointed out that traders are expecting a +/-6% move for Bitcoin, driven by these inflation reports. However, he noted that the implied volatility, currently priced at 52.8% compared to 50.8% for other maturities, does not suggest that the market is fully anticipating a major move. Implied volatility, a metric derived from the price of an asset’s options, indicates the market’s expectations for future volatility. Despite the slightly higher implied volatility, Thielen observed that it is not considered expensive since the realized volatility, which measures the actual historical volatility of Bitcoin, traded slightly below 50%.
In his analysis, Thielen emphasized that Bitcoin is currently testing the support level between $60,800 and $61,400. A support level is a price point where an asset tends to find buying interest, preventing it from falling further. Thielen warned that if Bitcoin breaks below this support range, it could lead to lower prices. He highlighted that the average entry price for spot Bitcoin ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) holdings is around $57,000, suggesting that a drop below $60,000 would likely cause significant concern among these investors. The spot Bitcoin ETF allows investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without owning the actual asset, and its inflows have reportedly slowed since Bitcoin’s recent rally attempts failed.
At the time of writing (8:30 a.m. UTC on May 14), Bitcoin is trading at around $61,857, down 1.5% in the past 24-hour period.
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