Willy Woo is a prominent figure in the cryptocurrency community, celebrated for his data-driven approach to market analysis and his insightful forecasts. Woo is the founder of The Bitcoin Forecast, a market intelligence newsletter that offers deep dives into the cryptocurrency markets. With a background in traditional finance and trading, Woo transitioned to the crypto space in 2013, bringing a wealth of experience and a unique analytical perspective.
Woo’s expertise in on-chain analysis has made him a sought-after voice in the crypto world. He developed several influential analytical tools, such as the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio, which compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to its transaction volume, similar to the price-earnings ratio used in traditional stock markets. His insights gained significant traction during the 2017 crypto bull run and have remained highly regarded during subsequent market cycles.
On 15 May 2024, Woo posted a notable insight on the social media platform X, stating, “Global liquidity forming a bullish ascending triangle. Expected breakout before Oct 2024. #Bitcoin 2025 will be one for the record books.” Later that day, he elaborated on this by specifying the components of global liquidity he was analyzing: “For Global Liquidity I’m using M2 Money Stock for CNY+USD+EUR+JPY+GBP.” He provided a detailed formula for tracking this liquidity using Trading View tickers.
To understand Woo’s analysis, it’s essential to grasp what M2 represents in economics. M2 is a measure of the money supply that includes a broad set of liquid assets. It consists of M1 (physical currency, demand deposits, and other checkable deposits) and additional forms of near money such as savings deposits, small time deposits (CDs under $100,000), and retail money market mutual funds. M2 provides a more comprehensive view of the money supply than M1 alone, making it a crucial indicator for economists and policymakers.
By examining the M2 money stock for major global currencies—Chinese Yuan (CNY), US Dollar (USD), Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen (JPY), and British Pound (GBP)—Woo assesses the overall liquidity in the global economy. His Trading View formula incorporates the M2 money stock for each currency, adjusted by their exchange rates to the USD, and aggregates them to provide a unified measure of global liquidity.
The concept of a “bullish ascending triangle” that Woo mentions is a technical analysis pattern indicating a potential upward breakout. This pattern is characterized by a series of higher lows that form a rising trendline, converging with a horizontal resistance line. When the price breaks above the resistance line, it typically signals a strong bullish trend. Woo’s expectation of a breakout before October 2024 suggests he anticipates significant increases in global liquidity, which could propel Bitcoin prices higher.
Woo’s forecast that “Bitcoin 2025 will be one for the record books” implies that he expects these liquidity conditions to create a highly favorable environment for Bitcoin, potentially leading to unprecedented price levels.
Woo’s posts highlight the importance of global liquidity in driving asset prices, including Bitcoin. By monitoring M2 money stock and its implications for liquidity, investors can gain insights into potential macroeconomic trends that may impact the cryptocurrency market. Woo’s analysis underscores the interconnectedness of global financial systems and the significant role that liquidity plays in market movements.
Featured Image via Pixabay
