With the price of Bitcoin down by more than 8% over the last 30-day period and as enthusiasm surrounding the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States starts fading, one popular analyst has recently revealed Bitcoin’s 12-hour chart formed a ‘death cross’, a chart pattern reflecting weakness.
Bitcoin is at the time of writing trading at $64,400 per token after falling significantly from its new all-time high achieved earlier this year above the $73,500 mark, and popular cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez has revealed on the microblogging platform X (formerly known as Twitter) a death cross on BTC’s 12-hour chart.
A death cross, it’s worth noting, occurs when a short-term moving average drops below a longer-term moving average, in this case the cryptocurrency’s 50 moving average dropped below the 100 moving average.
According to Investopedia, market history of death crosses suggests the signal “tends to precede a near-term rebound with above-average returns.” Martinez also pointed to a red 9 candlestick from the TD Sequential as a sell signal worth considering.
Per the cryptocurrency analyst if the price of Bitcoin falls below the $63,300 mark, it’s possible it will keep on running down to the $61,000 and potentially even the $59,000 mark.
While these bearish predictions have grabbed headlines, it’s important to note that many analysts still believe a significant price increase for Bitcoin is on the horizon. Only time will tell which side of the argument proves to be correct.
Notably, a different Bitcoin price indicator suggests the cryptocurrency has entered bullish territory, after BTC’s price nearly topped its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which serves as a key indicator of long-term trends, and its current rapid rise signifies strong bullish momentum.
Historically, data suggests that the most intense phases of Bitcoin bull markets unfold after the 200-day SMA breaks its previous high as a similar pattern emerged in early November 2020, six months after the third halving event. The 200-day SMA climbed above $10,320 at the time, and by mid-April 2021, Bitcoin had experienced a significant 4.5-fold increase to $63,800.
Looking back further, the 200-day SMA reaching new highs in December 2016, roughly five months after the second halving, preceded a monumental surge. Bitcoin witnessed a staggering 2,000% rise to over $19,000 within a year, while a similar trajectory occurred after the first halving in November 2012, which coincided with the average reaching a new peak.
While past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, certain elements of these cycles appear to be repeating. For example, Bitcoin’s bear market reached its climax in November 2022, followed by price increases, aligning with the historical pattern of bottoming out 15 months before a new halving cycle began to fuel a rally.
As CryptoGlobe reported, a popular cryptocurrency analyst known in the space for accurately predicting the cryptocurrency market bottom during the 2018 bear market has recently revealed he believes that Bitcoin will make a new all-time high “within the next 1-2 weeks.”
The analyst revealed he sees Bitcoin’s price top around the $120,000 mark this cycle after noting that he sees it in wave five of a larger trend. Not everyone is as bullish, however, with a recent report from Fidelity Digital Assets suggesting Bitcoin is no longer “cheap” and is instead considered to be trading at its “fair” value.
Featured image via Unsplash.
