Vetle Lunde, a Senior Analyst at K33 Research, recently presented an in-depth report focusing on the upcoming spot Bitcoin ETF verdict in the U.S. and its impact on Bitcoin. Lunde, with his expert lens, dissects the crypto market’s current state and provides a strategic outlook for the coming months.
Lunde highlights the growing excitement around the SEC’s decision (to approve or reject) on the first spot Bitcoin ETF, i.e., the ARK 21Shares Spot Bitcoin ETF, the deadline for which is 10 January 2024.
He claims this anticipation has been a primary driver of Bitcoin’s positive momentum since October, marked by robust institutional demand.
Drawing from past patterns, Lunde suggests December could be a bullish month for Bitcoin. He references key events like the CME BTC futures launch in 2017, Coinbase’s public listing in April 2021, and El Salvador’s Bitcoin legal tender status in September 2021. These events, he notes, have historically led to Bitcoin’s value peaking, suggesting a similar trend might unfold leading up to the spot Bitcoin ETF decision.
According to Lunde, institutional interest in Bitcoin remains high. He points to the significant BTC inflows in ETPs and all-time highs in CME open interest. He believes that these factors, coupled with a 20% futures premium, underscore Bitcoin’s strength, primarily fueled by institutional players, while retail participation remains static.
Lunde observes that offshore flows are minimal, and Bitcoin-denominated open interest in BTC perps is at yearly lows. He notes the lack of crypto-native euphoria, which he deems a positive signal for Bitcoin’s market position.
Acknowledging the trend of front running ahead of the 10 January 2024 deadline, Lunde anticipates that some traders might seek to realize gains. However, he predicts that the historical trend of Bitcoin peaking at major events might encourage traders to hold off on selling until closer to the spot ETF verdict. Lunde’s personal strategy involves maintaining his long position from September and planning to de-risk and reassess once the spot ETF outcome is clear.
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