Raoul Pal, a former Goldman Sachs executive and CEO of Real Vision, has made a bold prediction about the performance of Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) in 2024. Addressing his one million followers on a social media platform on December 21, Pal suggested that Ethereum might replicate its 2021 bull market pattern against Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) in the coming year.
Pal’s analysis is rooted in historical data. He recalled that in February 2021, when Bitcoin first reached $44,000, Ethereum was priced at $1,400. Nine months later, Ethereum had surged by 245%, while Bitcoin had only risen by 45%. Based on this, Pal believes that Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin could be a major trend in 2024. His firm, Exponential Age Asset Management (EXPAAM), supports this view.
The analyst also anticipates more favorable macroeconomic conditions for risk assets like Ethereum, which could lead to a similar surge as seen two years ago. He emphasized the importance of liquidity and the business cycle in driving these trends, suggesting that narratives often follow these underlying factors.
In a surprising twist, Pal also believes that Solana will outperform Ethereum in 2024. Responding to a query on social media, he simply stated, “No,” when asked if Ethereum could outperform Solana.
Pal’s interest in Solana is partly influenced by the development of Firedancer, a new validator client for the Solana blockchain. Developed by Jump Crypto, a division of Jump Trading Group, Firedancer aims to enhance network performance within existing hardware constraints. This development is significant as Solana’s network currently relies on a single validator client developed by Solana Labs. Firedancer, expected to launch on the mainnet in Summer 2024, promises to optimize network performance and add security by reducing software-induced outages.
Messari, a market intelligence firm, has highlighted scalability as a critical challenge in the crypto sector. Solana’s commitment to a monolithic architecture, as opposed to modular solutions adopted by other networks, is a key focus of Firedancer. Initial tests of Firedancer have shown promising results, achieving a transaction speed of one million transactions per second (TPS) with just four CPU cores, surpassing Solana’s recommended 12-core setup.
If successfully implemented, Firedancer could offer several benefits, including reducing latency in the DeFi sector and enabling high-throughput Web2 applications to function on-chain. It could also enhance Solana’s network resilience by introducing client diversity, mitigating risks related to software bugs.
Pal’s optimism about Solana is further bolstered by performance charts against Ethereum and Bitcoin. He likened Solana’s upward trend in these charts to a rocket ship, indicating a promising future. His enthusiasm grew after interviews with the Jump Crypto team responsible for Firedancer, learning that the new validator client would not only boost Solana’s transaction speed but also fortify the security of the entire blockchain. The team behind Firedancer is focused on achieving high-frequency trading speeds, which Pal believes could be a game-changer for Solana.
Although the exact launch date for Firedancer is unclear, Pal remains bullish on Solana’s prospects. He has previously suggested that Solana could emulate Ethereum’s bullish market cycle from 2021. He maintains this view, speculating that Solana could be the Ethereum of the current market cycle without diminishing the value of Ethereum or Bitcoin.
Pal concluded by stating that in the current economic landscape, the goal is to maximize gains whenever possible, and he sees Solana as a strong candidate for achieving this objective.
