Michaël van de Poppe, a renowned crypto analyst, has made a bold prediction about the future of Bitcoin (BTC), forecasting a significant surge in its value. In a strategy session shared with his 161,000 YouTube subscribers, van de Poppe analyzed past bull market cycles and the concept of diminishing returns to support his prediction.
Van de Poppe’s Analysis and Predictions:
- Massive Surge Prediction
- Van de Poppe predicts that Bitcoin could see an explosive growth of 961% from its current value, potentially reaching as high as $400,000.
- Basis of Prediction
- His forecast is grounded in the analysis of previous bull market cycles and the principle of diminishing returns.
- Comparison with Past Cycles
- He notes that in the previous cycle, Bitcoin grew significantly, rising from $3,000 to $69,000. This growth, he argues, indicates that diminishing returns do not necessarily mean a weaker performance in subsequent cycles.
- Impact of External Factors
- Van de Poppe mentions the influence of Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX in pushing down Bitcoin’s price during the 2019-2021 cycle, suggesting that external factors have played a role in the cryptocurrency’s valuation.
- Future Growth Calculations
- He proposes that if the bear market has concluded, a 20x increase from the early 2023 market cycle low is plausible. This calculation forms the basis of his $300,000 to $400,000 prediction.
- Role of New Market Participants
- The analyst believes that the influx of new participants in the crypto market could be a driving force behind this significant price increase. He suggests that this new wave of investors could propel Bitcoin into a cycle similar to that of 2016-2017.
- Altcoins’ Performance
- Alongside his Bitcoin prediction, van de Poppe also anticipates that altcoins will perform well in this bull cycle, benefiting from the overall market growth.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $38,808, down 0.13% in the past 24-hour period.
Markus Thielen, head of research and strategy at Matrixport, recently informed clients about Bitcoin’s potential year-end performance. Based on historical data, Thielen noted that Bitcoin, when experiencing a surge of at least 100% within a year, has a 71% chance of climbing higher by year’s end, with an average additional increase of 65%. Currently, Bitcoin has risen over 127% year-to-date, influenced by factors like the anticipation of Bitcoin ETFs, speculation on the Federal Reserve’s liquidity measures, and its role as a safe haven asset.
Thielen referred to the period from early November to mid-December as Bitcoin’s “Santa Claus Rally,” suggesting that Bitcoin often peaks around December 18th. This period could see significant gains for the cryptocurrency.
Separately, investment management firm AllianceBernstein (Bernstein), headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee, projected that Bitcoin’s value could reach $150,000 by 2025. This forecast hinges on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a spot Bitcoin ETF by early 2024. Bernstein’s analysis indicates that such approval could lead to 10% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply being absorbed by ETFs, offering a more straightforward investment avenue compared to Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust.
Gautam Chhugani of Bernstein emphasized the importance of the timing for the ETF approval and advised a neutral stance on Bitcoin, treating it as a commodity suitable for ETF integration. His analysis also considered the impact of the Bitcoin halving event in April 2024, which is expected to reduce mining rewards and potentially benefit stronger mining operations by eliminating less efficient ones. This event is a key factor in Bernstein’s bullish outlook for Bitcoin’s future valuation.
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