In a recent interview, Benjamin Cowen, a widely respected cryptocurrency analyst, indicated that Bitcoin (BTC) may experience a significant price reduction prior to its next halving event, scheduled for April 2024. Although Cowen did not explicitly state that a 50% drop is imminent, such a decline from Bitcoin’s recent highs would position its value at approximately $15,000.
Cowen pointed to historical data to illustrate that Bitcoin has traditionally suffered notable price dips before halving events. He said that despite the buzz surrounding Bitcoin’s halving cycles, the cryptocurrency has usually undergone a price reduction by roughly half prior to the actual halving. According to Cowen, this pattern was evident in the last cycle when Bitcoin’s price dropped by 50% during the onset of the pandemic, even before the halving occurred. He went on to note that this decline began in the summer, similar to the cycle preceding that one. Cowen posited that this could suggest a similar trend is unfolding, questioning whether the current market is, in fact, experiencing a “lower high,” as part of this potential 50% drop.
In addition to historical trends, Cowen identified the waning liquidity in the crypto and other risk asset markets as a reason for potential downside price movement. He expressed concern that the buying power of alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) is diminishing, which could affect Bitcoin’s market performance. He questioned the inflow of new money into the crypto space, noting that the total market capitalization has remained largely static, roughly equivalent to levels seen in February and August 2022. According to Cowen, the lack of fresh investment capital entering the space suggests that funds are merely moving within the crypto market rather than expanding it. He emphasized that this phenomenon appears to be a distribution phase, particularly highlighting the declining performance of the ETH/Bitcoin trading pair.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $28,392, down 0.46% in the past 24-hour period.
On October 9, Cowen warned that the crypto market is entering an especially tough period. With a following of around 770K on the social media platform X (previously known as Twitter), Cowen highlighted that Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market capitalization is climbing as investors turn increasingly cautious.
Cowen has been discussing this unique market phase for a while now. He observes that during this time, even if Bitcoin’s price may fall, its market dominance tends to grow. This is attributed to the fact that other digital currencies, known as altcoins, are facing even steeper drops in their value. According to Cowen, this constitutes the most difficult part of the market cycle.
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