Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Analysis – 15 June 2023: ‘STRONG SELL’ Suggested by Technical Indicators and Moving Averages

Introduction

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of Bitcoin’s (BTC) price dynamics on Binance, covering technical indicators, moving averages, and pivot points.

Price and Volume Overview

As of 7:20 p.m. UTC on 15 June 2023, on Binance, the price of BTC is $24,966.7, which is a decrease of $927.9 (-3.58%) from the previous close. The volume of BTC traded in the last 24 hours is 50,589. The highest price of BTC in the last 24 hours was $26,098.0, and the lowest price was $24,820.6. The bid price and the ask price are both $24,966.7.

Technical Indicators

Technical indicators are mathematical calculations that use historic price, volume, and (in the case of futures contracts) open interest information to predict future price movements.

Here’s a detailed breakdown of the technical indicators for BTC:

• RSI(14): The Relative Strength Index (RSI) compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. An RSI of 28.630 indicates a sell position.
• STOCH(9,6): The Stochastic Oscillator compares a security’s closing price to its price range over a specific period of time. A value of 96.447 indicates an overbought condition, which typically results in a sell signal.
• STOCHRSI(14): The Stochastic RSI combines two popular indicators, the Stochastic Oscillator and the Relative Strength Index. A value of 42.579 suggests that the asset is in a sell condition.
• MACD(12,26): The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of a security’s price. A value of -241.800 indicates a sell position.
• ADX(14): The Average Directional Index (ADX) is used to measure the strength or weakness of a trend, not the actual direction. A value of 51.649 indicates a sell position.
• Williams %R: The Williams %R is a momentum indicator that measures overbought and oversold levels. A value of -6.582 suggests that the asset is in an overbought condition, which typically results in a sell signal.
• CCI(14): The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is a momentum-based oscillator used to help determine when an investment vehicle is reaching a condition of being overbought or oversold. A value of -85.2817 indicates a sell position.
• ATR(14): The Average True Range (ATR) is a market volatility indicator. A value of 190.5014 suggests high volatility.
• Highs/Lows(14): This value represents the highest and lowest prices over the last 14 days. A value of -145.1741 indicates a sell position.
• Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is a technical indicator that is used to identify potential price reversals. A value of 40.310 indicates a sell position.
• ROC: The Rate of Change (ROC) is a momentum oscillator, which measures the percentage change between the current price and the n-period past price. A value of -4.039 indicates a sell position.
• Bull/Bear Power(13): The Elder-Ray Index, developed by Dr. Alexander Elder, is an oscillator that measures the power of bulls and bears in the market. A value of -520.5351 indicates a sell position.

Here is a summary of the technical indicators in table form:

In summary, the technical indicators suggest a strong bearish sentiment for BTC since there are nine sell signals, zero buy signals, and two neutral signals. The overall summary is a STRONG SELL.

Moving Averages

Moving averages are a type of data smoothing technique that analysts use in technical analysis to identify trends in a set of data, such as stock prices. They help to reduce the noise and fluctuation in price data to present a smoother line, making it easier to see the overall direction or trend.

There are several types of moving averages, but two of the most common ones are the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

1. Simple Moving Average (SMA): The SMA is calculated by adding together the prices for a certain number of periods and then dividing by that number of periods. For example, a 5-day SMA would add together the closing prices for the last 5 days and then divide by 5. The SMA gives equal weight to all the data points in its calculation.
2. Exponential Moving Average (EMA): The EMA is similar to the SMA, but it gives more weight to recent data. This means it responds more quickly to recent price changes than the SMA. The calculation of the EMA is a bit more complex than the SMA, involving an exponential smoothing factor to give more weight to recent prices.

The significance of different period moving averages (like 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day) lies in the timeframe that traders are interested in:

• 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages are often used for short-term trends. They respond quickly to price changes and are useful for traders looking to take advantage of short-term price movements.
• 50-day and 100-day moving averages are more medium-term. They are less sensitive to daily price fluctuations and provide a clearer picture of the medium-term trend.
• 200-day moving average is a long-term trend indicator. It’s less sensitive to daily price fluctuations and provides a clearer picture of the long-term trend. Many traders consider a market to be in a long-term uptrend when the price is above the 200-day moving average and in a long-term downtrend when it’s below.

It’s important to note that moving averages are lagging indicators, meaning they are based on past prices. They can help identify a trend but won’t predict future price movements.

Here’s a detailed breakdown of the moving averages for Bitcoin (BTC):

• MA5: The 5-day moving average is $25,004.2, indicating a sell position. The 5-day exponential moving average is $25,001.1, indicating a sell position.
• MA10: The 10-day moving average is $25,053.6, indicating a sell position. The 10-day exponential moving average is $25,130.0, indicating a sell position.
• MA20: The 20-day moving average is $25,416.2, indicating a sell position. The 20-day exponential moving average is $25,309.3, indicating a sell position.
• MA50: The 50-day moving average is $25,748.6, indicating a sell position. The 50-day exponential moving average is $25,599.4, indicating a sell position.
• MA100: The 100-day moving average is $25,813.7, indicating a sell position. The 100-day exponential moving average is $25,802.8, indicating a sell position.
• MA200: The 200-day moving average is $26,078.0, indicating a sell position. The 200-day exponential moving average is $26,049.5, indicating a sell position.

Here is a summary of the moving averages in table form:

In summary, the moving averages suggest a bearish sentiment for BTC since there are twelve sell signals and zero buy signals. The overall summary is a STRONG SELL.

Pivot Points

Pivot points are technical analysis indicators used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. They are calculated using the high, low, and closing prices of a previous trading period. If the trading price for the next period is above the pivot point, it is considered a bullish sentiment, and if it is below the pivot point, it is considered bearish.

There are several methods to calculate pivot points, each with its own way of calculating support and resistance levels. Here are the methods used in this report:

1. Classic: This is the most common method of calculating pivot points. The pivot point is calculated as the average of the high, low, and closing prices from the previous trading period. Support and resistance levels are then calculated off of this pivot point.
2. Fibonacci: This method applies the mathematical concept of Fibonacci sequences to the price data to calculate the pivot point and associated support and resistance levels.
3. Camarilla: This method uses a unique equation to calculate the pivot point and support and resistance levels, which often results in much closer levels than other methods.
4. Woodie’s: This method gives more weight to the closing and opening prices when calculating the pivot point.
5. DeMark’s: This method was developed by Tom DeMark and uses the relationship between the opening, closing, and high and low prices of the previous trading period to calculate the pivot point.

Here’s a detailed breakdown of the pivot points for Bitcoin (BTC):

• Classic: The S3, S2, S1, Pivot Point, R1, R2, and R3 values are $24,752.0, $24,838.4, $24,889.1, $24,975.5, $25,026.2, $25,112.6, and $25,163.3 respectively.
• Fibonacci: The S2, S1, Pivot Point, R1, R2 values are $24,838.4, $24,890.8, $24,923.1, $24,975.5, $25,027.9, and $25,060.2 respectively. The S3 and R3 values are not available for this method.
• Camarilla: The S1, Pivot Point, and R1 values are $24,902.1, $24,914.7, and $24,927.3 respectively. The S2, S3, R2, and R3 values are not available for this method.
• Woodie’s: The S2, S1, Pivot Point, R1, and R2 values are $24,734.2, $24,829.5, $24,871.3, $24,966.6, $25,008.4, $25,103.7, and $25,145.5 respectively. The S3 and R3 values are not available for this method.
• DeMark’s: The S1, Pivot Point, and R1 values are $24,863.8, $24,962.8, and $25,000.9 respectively. The S2, S3, R2, and R3 values are not available for this method.

Here is a summary of the pivot points in table form:

Conclusion

The technical indicators, moving averages, and pivot points all suggest a bearish sentiment for Bitcoin (BTC). The technical indicators show a strong sell signal, with nine sell signals and zero buy signals. The moving averages also suggest a strong sell, with twelve sell signals and zero buy signals. Traders and investors should exercise caution and consider these factors when making their trading decisions.

Featured Image Credit: Photo / illustration by “Dylan Calluy” via Unsplash