After looking like it was about to break a very important level, Bitcoin (BTC) found itself being sold off over the weekend, shrinking back into familiar territory at the last minute. The rejection is definitely not set in stone, but for now the HTF market structure remains intact.
Starting on the 4-hour chart, we see that a bear divergence and flagging volume telegraphed the moved down, which cut through the first potential consolidation level.
The histogram took a deep plunge and may or may not be gathering momentum for another move down. This LTF chart looks generally bearish, and a second leg down would not be surprising.
We see that Bitcoin is now trending just above a recent parallel channel. The ideal scenario here would be for the leading crypto to hold at this top level of the channel, as sinking to the bottom of it would certainly not be bullish. Important 2019 support has also flipped back resistance.
Adding to the bearish outlook, a hidden bearish divergence has been painted on the chart, and if things keep trending down it will stick. This would suggest a continuation in the present HTF trend, which is slightly down and generally sideways. The histogram has dipped back into negative territory for the first time in well over a month – although here the daily has not yet closed and could still reverse.
Finally, on the weekly chart, we see just how close Bitcoin came to breaking out of its box structure. Last week closed with a doji-ish candle that could easily signal a reversal back down to support near $5k.
Ultimately, the selling we saw was an enticing target and to be expected. The situation is still not so bad that upside cannot continue; but the longer price is stuck under $9k, the more likely it is for a full return to the bottom of the HTF structure.
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