Ethereum (ETH) has trended down since mid-February, even before COVID-19 started to batter global markets. But what began as a healthy correction eventually became a full rout for Ethereum, and more damage was done to the HTF charts than seems possible to repair. We are not seeing any major signs of that repair, here.
We start on the weekly ETH/Bitcoin chart, and see that Ethereum has lost all important levels: all of the EMAs and the 2019 ‘capitulation line’. The RSI has been beaten to submission under the 50% line, and the histogram is trending down with no sign of respite yet.
We have, however, been seeing some healthy defense wicks for the last two weeks of price action, and if the 8 EMA can be defended above the 21 we could see a bottom start laid.
Coming in to the 2-day ETH/Bitcoin chart, things look a bit better with the histogram trending smoothly up into a bullish EMA contraction.
However, we are not even close to chewing into the market structure of the MTF downtrend, which we can see fully laid out here. Getting back above the capitulation line is a minimum for even considering that trend reversed on this chart.
Finally, moving to the ETH/Dollar daily, we see what was likely not more than the predictable ‘relief bounce’ fizzling.
ETH has broken the LTF uptrend line, and the RSI here looks to have ended its higher-low/-high trend. The histogram also is refusing to get any traction, and we are fairly likely to see this roll over toward something like $115. Ethereum never looked like it put in a proper bottom on this chart, and we would still like to see something more dependable to mark $100 as the bottom.
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