Today is a red day across the crypto markets, with Bitcoin’s (BTC) MTF consolidation morphing into a MTF downtrend after the loss of its local market structure. Although Ethereum (ETH) is of course diving with it, the leading altcoin is so far holding an important level that it retook during the recent surge.
We can see this level on the weekly ETH/Bitcoin chart, located right at the 55 EMA at about ₿0.025. This is also within an important support zone derived from 2018-19 price history, and finding support anywhere in here would secure the higher uptrend.
Even if that doesn’t hold, the only must-hold level is ultimately the dotted line here, which is the “capitulation line” of 2019. This is where price, in 2019, dropped into 2017 price territory, and losing this level would likely cancel the uptrend. The histogram here is rolling over gently, and we want to see this profile stay gentle, like a hill, while ETH consolidations around this level.
If we look at the daily ETH/Bitcoin chart, we can imagine that the downside is not quite over. The histogram in particular has taken a turn for the worst and started to point straight down, and the RSI is nowhere near being technically oversold; that means there is plenty of selling left in the tank.
But we can also see that Ethereum has not even engaged the first main Fibonacci retracement level from its HTF market structure, at .382. That level is also confluent with a significant price level from the last year, although not as significant as the capitulation line. We should look for some support here.
Finally, turning to the ETH/Dollar side, we see that the forecasted bull flag breakout is now completely effaced (blush) as Bitcoin has tumbled hard. There is a strong potential here for a relief bounce place, with the RSI oversold and the histogram starting to cool in its bearish expansion.
In sum, the important HTF levels are still intact, just as with Bitcoin. We’ll let you know when they are in jeopardy.
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