Bitcoin (BTC) had a sharp surge yesterday, after seeming like it was finally topping off after cresting $10,000. That surge, which seems to have sparked another collective push from the wider crypto markets, is being held at the regional (October) high of around $10,500, depending on the exchange. Some bear signs are starting to show up on the charts, and we could finally see a MTF switch to a downtrend soon.
Starting on the 4-hour, we see that a skewed double top has formed between roughly $10,150-500, with a bearishly diverging RSI pattern telegraphing danger. Given how fast and hard Bitcoin has shot up recently, a change in both MTF and LTF uptrends would be no surprise.
We can see, below, a shot from mid-2019 where this level proved an important resistance level. It may well hold for now, even though the HTF will likely crack it eventually.
Stepping way back to the weekly for some context, we are reminded of just how good Bitcoin does look. The main trendline here is drawn from Bitcoin’s all-time-high, coming at the end of 2017, and across its regional high of $14k in 2019.
The implications of this should be obvious: when this trendline is broken, there will be very little – technically speaking – keeping Bitcoin away from regaining its all-time-high.
This does not mean a break will come just now. We could reject here and head back down to retest this trendline; a great place for that would be just where it crosses $9,100, itself a very important level that was already taken out.
Four of the last five weeks have been green, and although this is not a record-setting figure, it does bear scrutiny. Bitcoin has already broken almost all the levels its needs to confirm an uptrend for at least the rest of 2020. Being held at $10,500 would not be the end of the world.
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