Since Bitcoin’s (BTC) dramatic surge on October 25, which may or may not have begun a broad trend reversal, Ethereum (ETH) price was also pushed up and away from what may have been a bottom. And on high timeframes, Ethereum is looking promising. However, in the short to medium term, there is some weakness on the charts.
We first look at the weekly chart, and see a decent picture of support within previous resistance. Last week closed above the 8 EMA, and if ETH can hold this level this week – unlike the last time it tried to in September – it will be an encouraging sign of strength.
We see the histogram trending up with a flat trajectory. Volume has been falling for a while in general, which signals a decrease in sell pressure. Overall, we’re looking for a long term reversal out of the $180 area.
On a smaller timeframe chart like the ETH/USD daily, however, we don’t see the kind of support needed to make any moves. The altcoin is consolidating after its big move up with (or because of) Bitcoin, squeezed between $191 and the 21/55 EMAs. Volume is not showing up in either direction, and the moving averages are now compacted into a knot, signaling a flagging uptrend – perhaps inviting a drop through them all on little support.
We see that the RSI is telling us basically nothing, with no divergences to speak of. The histogram is showing some loss in strength, with a lower high and crowding the center of the range. It wouldn’t be surprising to see ETH follow Bitcoin here, and take a leg down for a deeper retrace in what was looking like a bull pennant.
Finally, moving to the BTC pairing, we see that Ethereum is still trapped under its capitulation level, which marked the point in 2019 when ETH dropped into price territory not seen since 2017. In fact, it has not even been able to test that level for a second time, instead stuck at a local resistance level.
A higher low was put in what looked like a larger uptrend, on October 28. But since then there hasn’t been much follow-through for the uptrend, with volume falling as price rose. The histogram on this chart is smoothly rolling over, signall perhaps another rejection at this resistance level, a break of the RSI uptrend, and some more consolidation here – hopefully with another higher low, perhaps near the 55 EMA.
Although looking decent in the long term still, ETH probably won’t make any big movements soon. General interest seems to be low on either side of the market, and both daily charts look ready to roll over at any time.
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