Ethereum (ETH) had been enjoying a strong and promising uptrend off the lows of its 2019 capitulation before last week, when Bitcoin (BTC) thrashed the markets by breaking down. But Ethereum is fighting back, and some important indicators on the daily are about to go bullish — even as the leading altcoin struggles to push out of a resistance level.
Starting with the ETH/BTC daily, we see the aforementioned indicators: an array of commonly used exponential moving averages (EMAs, the multicolored moving lines). This “EMA fan” had in early September been fully bearish, meaning the highest average (the 55) was on top, with each level neatly stacked below in its sequential order.
Now, this pattern is about to cross fully bullish, meaning the smallest EMA (the 9) is on top, with each higher level stacked below it. The orientation of the EMA fan is an easy way to quickly see which way momentum is going — and here, it is bullish.
However, looking at the exact same chart with different markup, we get a different impression. Here, we catch a major bearish divergence on the RSI from price. The histogram mostly flat, but edging very close to the negative side of the range, while the MACD looks poised to fall back down to earth at any moment.
Price itself is stuck in resistance, although it is holding the 9 EMA faithfully. Here, we see a delicate picture if not exactly weakness. ETH’s new uptrend generally does not look like it wants to quit, but it might need to gather some strength at the 21 EMA first in order to crack the present resistance.
Down on the 4-hour, we see the same story. Price is carefully tiptoeing higher up to the local resistance. We see a hidden bullish divergence on the RSI, suggesting the local uptrend can continue.
But again, the lack of volume may cause a dip down to a lower level for more consolidation, or even a trend reversal. However, the local structure also looks like an ascending triangle, which may end up presaging a break up.
Bitcoin’s breakdown doused cold water on the whole market including the altcoins. Nevertheless, Ethereum looks promising here if a bit quiet. It needs to break the resistance hanging just above it, if it wants to maintain its uptrend from the bottom. The scary alternative is that a double top could send it back down to new lows.
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