On the surface, Bitcoin (BTC) looks downright boring today, trading on low volume within a very narrow range. But in fact, the leading crypto has been squeezed into an extremely tight corner of a pattern, and volatility could swiftly return at any moment.
We start with a 6-hour chart, below, showing the 200 exponential moving average (EMA). This average has been an inflection point for Bitcoin’s price since mid-August (and even before). And on the August 26 fakeout out of this pattern, price was quickly sold back below the 200.
The blue uptrend band is important, as it mostly corresponds to Bitcoin’s general uptrend for several months. Breaking below it, which is here a possibility, would have us looking at Bitcoin’s prospects for 2019 with concern. Finally, we see that a breakout would likely have an eventual target of about $11,200, where the larger structure’s downtrend line lies.
We can see on the above chart that volume is also squeezing into a diminishing point as a consolidation, corroborating the idea that price will break soon. Sort term indicators, such as on the 4-hour, are as listless and mute as price action is, and give us little material to estimate a breakout direction.
Instead, we might only grasp onto the larger trend, which is mostly still bullish but with some worrying signs. For example, on the 3-day chart below, we can see that the “fan” of EMAs has been unfurled since May of this year.
But dangerously, we see that the 9 EMA is at real risk of crossing over the 13 EMA. The same scare passed in late July, but the fan has been compressing since then.
Generally, this looks like a huge, 2.5-month bull flag, and this would suggest that BTC stays in its consolidation pattern. That would mean we would expect it to break up in the very near future, and have another attempt at the top of the larger pattern at $11.2k. That seems like about the best we have to go on at this time.
If we look at the 3-day indicators, trying to get anything we can, one can glean a hidden bullish divergence between now and June. This suggests that the general large uptrend will continue. Down on the MACD/histogram, we see that the MACD is careening back toward the centerline. But the histogram seems to have stabilized and is arcing up, and could form a higher low here.
None of this is enough to “predict” that price will break up in the coming hours or days. The larger uptrend is still intact, although definitely flagging. Perhaps the apathy in the markets will come to a close, as the summer months conclude.
The views and opinions expressed here do not reflect those of CryptoGlobe.com and do not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.
