After yesterday’s stiff rejection off of $13,000, Bitcoin (BTC) fell a full $2,000 before finding support at $11k. The leading crypto is bouncing at time of writing (in spite of U.S. President Trump’s out-of-touch-dad views of Bitcoin), although not much follow up is coming in so far.
Starting on the 4-hour chart, we see the full picture of recent price action from the $14,000 local top. The 200 exponential moving average (EMA) has held BTC on the bottom side, and we might notice a large consolidation emerging (more on this later).
Yesterday’s drop was held at the important $11,000 zone, which marks the pivot line of this market structure. In the medium term, remaining and consolidating at or above $11k would be very good.
Zooming in, we see that the current bounce has not come on strong volume, and so we might not expect much longevity. It seems fairly likely that $12,000 will repulse BTC, as the leading crypto seems to be losing steam overall.
Again, if BTC is sent back down, we can expect the 200 EMA to hold: this average has held all Bitcoin dips so far during the 2019 uptrends. Until this does break, it represents a level where we would highly expect buyers to step in. And it just so happens that this EMA is currently steaming toward the $11k support zone.
Looking at the histogram here, we see that it is ticking up – but also that the last trough equalled the previous major one put in at the beginning of July. This might be a bad sign.
Looking at the daily, things look stable enough. Buyers supported the $11k wick, and the 33 EMA (equivalent to the 200 on the 4-hour) supports the bottom end of what is looking like a consolidation. The RSI is holding where it needs to in order to stay bullish overall, and the histogram low being put in now is higher than the previous low.
If this is a consolidation, it naturally looks like a bull pennant. The entire 2019 has ridden on the 33 EMA during consolidations for more upside, and this one could be more of the same.
$11,000 and slightly below it is the zone we must watch. For now, things like safe for the medium and long term. But in the shorter term, the lack of volume may preclude retaking $12,000.
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