In a recent blog post, VanEck’s Digital Assets Investment Analyst Nathan Frankovitz and Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel report that Bitcoin’s price has surged in a high-volatility, post-election rally. The VanEck analysts state that Bitcoin is now in uncharted territory with no technical price resistance.
The VanEck team points out that this pattern mirrors events from four years ago, when Bitcoin’s price doubled between the 2020 election and year-end, followed by an additional 137% gain in 2021. According to their blog post, VanEck is receiving inbound calls at an accelerating pace as many investors find themselves under-allocated to the asset class.
The analysts report that on election night, Tuesday, November 5th, Bitcoin surged approximately 9% to new all-time highs of around $75,000 as Polymarket’s odds indicated Trump was winning the race. The VanEck team notes this aligned with their previous observations of Bitcoin’s price surging when Trump’s odds improved on Polymarket, such as after his assassination attempt.
According to the VanEck report, Trump made Bitcoin and crypto central to his campaign, promising to end the SEC’s regulation-by-enforcement approach and to “make America the world capital for crypto and Bitcoin.” The analysts state that with Trump as the president-elect, regulatory headwinds are turning into tailwinds for the first time.
The VanEck team reports that Trump has already started appointing pro-crypto figures across the executive branch. They note that the Republican party now holds a unified government, increasing the likelihood of supportive legislation. Their blog post mentions that such legislation includes proposals like creating a national Bitcoin reserve—the odds of which are trading at 34% on Polymarket as of November 19th.
Regarding global dynamics, the VanEck analysts report that nations like BRICS are exploring alternatives like Bitcoin to bypass USD sanctions and currency manipulation. They state that stablecoins offer a strategic opportunity to export the U.S. dollar globally.
The VanEck team expects SAB to be repealed within Trump’s first quarter, if not by the SEC, then by Congress. They anticipate that in 2025, U.S. ETH ETFs will be amended to support staking, the SEC will accept the SOL ETF 19b-4, and in-kind creation and redemption will make these ETFs more tax-efficient and liquid.
On market metrics, the VanEck analysts report that Bitcoin dominance’s 7-day moving average rose 2 points to 59% this month, reaching levels not seen since March 2021. They note this represents an uptrend from 40% in November 2022.
Regarding regional trading, the VanEck team reports that traders during Asian market hours appeared to significantly increase their Bitcoin holdings this month. However, they clarify that Bitcoin’s price surge on election night occurred during Asian trading hours, likely driven by an unusually high proportion of US-based investors trading around the election.
The VanEck analysts maintain their cycle price target of $180,000 per Bitcoin, stating that key indicators they track continue to signal green for this rally. They reiterate their view that this election marks a bullish turning point, reversing years of offshoring jobs and capital caused by previous hawkish leadership.
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